Evidence from cases, international security 19 1994. The threeyear project on environmental change and acute conflict brought together a team of thirty researchers from ten countries. Homer dixon environmental scarcities and violent conflict. Thomas homer dixon 1956 university of toronto environmental change and acute conflict project ecacp, toronoto group environment, scarcity, and violence princeton 1999 neomalthusian approaches hypothesis. Environmental scarcities are already contributing to violent conflict in the developing world.
Project on environmental change and acute conflict. What are the implications of this prediction for human migration and violent conflict, defined as a range of activities, including, for example, threats, beating, appropriation, insurgency, skirmishes, and interstate or intrastate wars. The author uses social science research methodology to isolate the independent variable of environmental scarcity in order to study the ways it may or may not contribute to violence. Project on environment, population, and security links, university of toronto. Environmental stress and conflict thomas homerdixon. Modeling environmental abstract security in subsaharan. Professor thomas homerdixon, director of the waterloo institute for complexity and innovation of balsillie school, identifies us with what we should know about the relationship between climate. Download citation environmental change and violent conflict within the next 50 years, the human population is likely to exceed nine billion, and.
Thomas homerdixons environment, scarcity and violence offers a scholarly analysis of the role environmental scarcity plays in spawning violent human conflicts. Thomas homerdixon, environmental scarcities and violent conflict. Neomalthusian scholars such as homer dixon and kaplan argue that violence emerges due to scarcity of renewable resource such as forests, lands, water, etc. Violent environment in principle rejects the neomalthusian way of looking at environmental conflict. We describe and illustrate a new method of graphically diagramming disputants points of view called cognitiveaffective mapping.
Environment, scarcity, and violence foreign affairs. This site is like a library, use search box in the widget to get ebook that you want. The case of rwanda val percival thomas homerdixon on april 6,1994, president juvenal habyarimanas plane exploded in the skies above the kigali region of rwanda. Although many wars have been fought over natural resources, the author resists the simple notion that environmental pressures inexorably lead to violent conflict. Demographic pressure on environment resources is increasingly considered a security challenge around the world, especially after the end of cold war. Still, if environmental change were truly a major and pervasive cause of violent conflicts, it seems likely that some large crossnational studies of recent political violence would show more positive findings. Rathjens are codirectors of the project on environmental change and acute conflict, which is jointly sponsored by the university of toronto and the american academy of arts and sciences. Root causes of violent conflict in developing countries. Homerdixon, jeffrey boutwell, and george rathjens, environmental change and violent conflict, scientific american, vol. These conflicts may foreshadow a surge of similar violence in coming decades, particularly in poor countries where shortages of water, forests. Homerdixon environmental changes as causes of acute conflict a number of scholars have recently asserted that largescale humaninduced environmental pressures may seriously affect national and international security. Contemporary examples of conflict are featured to highlight what those changes could. Along the same lines, thomas homerdixon 2007 perhaps the most widelypublicized scholar in the area of environmental conflict argues that climate change will help produce insurgencies, genocide, guerrilla attacks, gang warfare, and global terrorism. Scholars predict that climate change will degrade the environment considerably during this century, ceteris paribus ipcc, 2007a, ipcc, 2007b.
This article from international security reports on the impacts of environmental change, population growth and unequal distribution of resources. Could environmental scarcities cause violent conflict. He argued that its influence on violent conflict would always be obscure and difficult for social scientists to prove, using traditional. This is due to rising competition over dwindling resources.
Since the 1990s, there has been an extensive scientific debate on how the scarcity of natural resources affects violence and armed conflict 29, 30. Climate change, economic growth, armed conflict, conflict. The scarcity induces marginalization and heightens competition. Some scholars claim that the competition over the resources can lead to conflict ehrlich, 1968, kahl, 2008 and homerdixon, 1999. This book examines how the environmental degradation of renewable resources such as fresh water, productive soils, forests, and fisheries influences relations between and within poor societies. Climate changeinduced migration and violent conflict. Environment, scarcity, and violence by thomas homerdixon. Environment, scarcity, and violence princeton university. He identified two patterns of environmentally driven conflict. It offers new insights into the relationships between climate change, human security, and violent conflict by integrating three disparate but wellfounded bodies of research on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, on livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking.
Focusing on renewable resources, homer dixon explained that there are two main sources of environmental scarcity. For instance, homerdixon suggests that environmental scarcity is at least in part responsible for some recent conflicts e. Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in. Under the category of social effects, homer dixon highlights the role of decreased regional agricultural production, population. Climate change and violent conflict article pdf available in science 3366083. These environmental changes can be thought of as scarcities of vital resources such as soil, water, and a stable climate and may cause widespread social disorder and violence. Climate change is becoming a focal point for security and conflict research and a challenge for. Homer dixon on the threshold 1 environmental changes as causes of acute conflict i a number of scholars have recently asserted that largescale humaninduced environmental pressures may seriously affect national and international security. Climate change, population drift and violent conflict over. I doubt if much will be written about the subjects in the next ten years that does not build on it, follow out some of its leads, or try to refute it. Vulnerability can be broken down into three factors. Table 1 summarises some our key hypothesised mechanisms by which climate change may undermine human security and may, in conjunction with an array of nonclimate specific factors, increase the risk of violent conflict. Portions of this article have been drawn from thomas homer dixon, jeffrey boutwell, and george rathjens, environmental scarcity and violent conflict, scientific american, february 1993.
Neomalthusian scholars such as homerdixon and kaplan argue that violence emerges due to scarcity of renewable resource such as forests, lands, water, etc. Thomas homerdixon born 1956 is a canadian political scientist and university research chair at the university of waterloo in the faculty of environment, and a professor at the balsillie school of international affairs in waterloo, canada. Click download or read online button to get environmental scarcity and violent conflict book now. Document resume ed 384 561 author homerdixon, thomas f. Pastoral sedentarisation, natural resource management and livelihood diversification in marsabit district, northern kenya.
Portions of this article have been drawn from thomas homerdixon, jeffrey boutwell, and george rathjens, environmental scarcity and violent conflict, scientific american, february 1993. Robert jervis, institute for war and peace studies, columbia university. One approach represented by thomas homerdixon, sees environmental change as raising the risk of conflict. Rathjens are codirectors of the project on environmental change and acute con. Somewhere, someone is writing a magnum opus on resource scarcity and its social effects. Despite the ambiguity of past environment conflict research, there is common agreement that there are links if vague between environmental change and violent conflict.
Six types of environmental change were identified as plausible causes of violent inter group conflict. In conclusion, a range of studies has tried to shed light on the question whether environmental changes can account for the onset of violent conflict. Keywords climate change, kenyas drylands, local institutions, resource curse, resource scarcity, violent conflict references adano, wario r, witsenburg, karen 2004 surviving pastoral decline. Homerdixon, environmental scarcities and violent conflict, 25, 27. Systematic scientific assessment of this claim is rather recent, however. Confronting the concept of environmentally induced. He also acknowledges that human ingenuity can reduce the likelihood of conflict, particularly in countries with efficient markets, capable states, and an educated populace. South africa, the insurgency in assam, the zapatista rebellion in chiapas homerdixon. According to the main architect of this theory, canadian political scientist thomas homerdixon, environmentally induced internal conflict, in turn, causes states to fragment or become more authoritarian, seriously disrupting international security.
Environmental scarcity, mass violence, and the limits to ingenuity. Published in the late nineties, the purpose of this academic work is to formulate a few theories of resource scarcity and its social effects. Feb 09, 2002 for example, the conflict in the sudan is an example of both horizontal inequality with people in the south being heavily deprived and powerful private gains that perpetuate the struggle. Homer dixon is careful to point out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses. In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content thomas f. May 12, 2016 the example provided by homerdixon 1994 of environmental migration triggering violent conflict was that associated with bengali migrants to the assam region of india, which resulted in the assam agitation a popular movement against undocumented migrants. However, it has not been shown that environmental factors are the only, or even important factors leading conflict homer dixon and blitt, 1998. Environmental conflict and environmental determinism. Hence, even though climaterelated environmental change can affect the dynamics of violent conflict by providing the opportunities to engage in violence, researchers must carefully distinguish this argument from the broader climate conflict proposition about the causes of conflict and consider the implications for their empirical investigations. Environmental change social vulnerability and conflict. Percival v and homerdixon t 1998 environmental scarcity and violent conflict. More recently, conflict studies pay attention to the vulnerability of natural and social systems to climate impacts. Thomas homerdixon 1994 explored the potential for violence at a local level as a result of environmental degradation and resource scarcity.
Costly signalling and environmental scarcity as causes of. Environmental change and violent conflict thomas homerdixon. Population, environment and security intrastate conflict in the south. They also show that non environmental factors outweigh environmental ones in terms of explanatory power. A major challenge for all studies is to find adequate data. Between april and august of 1994, as many as 1 million people were killed and more than 2 million people became refugees. Environment, scarcity, and violence homerdixon, thomas f. Severe droughts, damaging floods and mass migration. Environmental stress alone does not neces sarily trigger violent conflict.
Homerdixons main argument was that climate environmental change will affect conflict indirectly, by interacting with other stresses, institutional weaknesses, and existing resourceuse practices. There are early signs of an upsurge in violence in the coming decades that will be. Environment, scarcity, and violence kindle edition by. Specifically this article addresses the nature of communal civil violent conflicts in the northeast area of nigeria, the extent to which continuous climate change has contributed to the scenario, the patterns of the climatically induced violent conflicts, the major actors. In developing effective climate change adaptation measures, two important, yet often overlooked, factors need to be incorporated into the framework. In the first article, leading figure thomas homerdixon and his colleagues from the university of. The uninterrupted supply of resources such as oil and certain strategic minerals has been traditionally identifiedas a national security interest. As environmental change become more extreme in the future, we can expect to see a rise in environmentally related conflict such as water wars gleditsch, 2004. Link between environmental change and violent conflict. Environmental change and violent conflict researchgate.
Environmental changes and violent conflict request pdf. Pdf download for environmental scarcity and violent conflict. One approach represented by thomas homer dixon, sees environmental change as raising the risk of conflict. It is important to stress that climate change will not undermine human security or increase the risk of violent conflict in isolation from other. Responding to the security challenge peacekeeping and peacebuilding. Environment, scarcity, and violence princeton university press. Environmental changes and violent conflict iopscience. See william ford and john moore, additional evidence on the social characteristics of riot cities, social science quarterly 51, no. In the first article, leading figure thomas homerdixon and his colleagues from the university. There are early signs of an upsurge in violence in the coming decades that will be induced or. May 18, 2012 although some quantitative empirical studies support a link between climate change and violent conflict, others find no connection or only weak evidence. Cambridge, ma, international security programme, american academy for arts and sciences.
The termenvironmental degradat ion understood as a humanmade environmental change having a negative impact on human society expresses rather precisely what we mean by an environmental cause of conflict. Evidence from cases, international security 19 summer 1994. Ever since thomas malthus published his essay on the principle of population 1798, many policy makers and scholars have claimed that environmental degradation can cause violent conflict at the subnational level and between states e. Thomas homerdixon writes here on causality in complex systems. New issues will arise during conflict which perpetuate the conflict. Environmental change and violent conflict springerlink. Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Homer dixon holds the centre for international governance innovation chair of global systems at the balsillie school of international affairs in waterloo, ontario. Environmental changes as causes of acute conflict, international security, 16 1991, pp. Environmental scarcity and violent conflict download ebook.
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